60% Chance Of Memorial Day Weekend Tropical Storm

MIAMI, Florida -- NOAA's National Huricane Center in Miami, Florida has issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook at 8:40 p.m. EDT on May 24, 2012 due to a non-tropical low pressure system that has become better defined in the Atlantic off the coast of South Florida.

UPDATE: 2012 Memorial Day Weekend Sub-Tropical Storm Beryl

The low has developed thunderstorm activity.  NOAA says that there is some potential for additional development into a tropical or subtropical cyclone by Saturday during the 2012 Memorial Day Weekend as the system moves northeastward into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
 

The low will produce high seas off the Florida Atlantic coast which is bad news for boaters where Memorial Day weekend is traditionally a busy day for recreational boating and fishing.

 

The low is approximately 175 miles southeast of Port Canaveral, Florida.  Other busy cruise ports along South Florida such as the Port of Palm Beach, Port of Miami, and Port Everglades near Fort Lauderdale, Florida may also have local seas affected by this low pressure system.  Cruise passengers should check often with their particular cruise line for local weather updates affecting cruise itineraries.

The low could also produce dangerous rip currents for Memorial Day weekend beach goers along the Space Coast and east coast Florida beaches.

Surfers on the other hand, welcome the possibility of large ocean swell development.

As of 8:40 p.m. EDT today, the low has a high chance (60%) of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.  This is a substantial increase from the 20% chance given by NOAA earlier this morning, and 40% chance given by NOAA this afternoon.


Elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours:

BREVARD COUNTY IMPACT:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
600 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-251000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
600 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY 

MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND TOWARD THE 

OPEN ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS 

WITH SEAS TO 6 FEET EXPECTED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 

20 NAUTICAL MILES...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. 

SMALL CRAFT VENTURING OFFSHORE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

 .MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...AND A
FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE BANDS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
30 AND 35 KNOTS AND CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES. 

 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY 

MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND TOWARD THE 

OPEN ATLANTIC. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTENSIFYING 

THE LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA EAST COAST 

BEGINNING  TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT FRIDAY. INITIALLY

...THIS NON TROPICAL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM EAST

CENTRAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME BLOCKED 

BY A DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND TURN BACK

TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND TOWARD FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS 

OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS NON TROPICAL LOW MAY BEGIN 

TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM...SHOULD IT GET CLOSE ENOUGH

TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...WOULD INCLUDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL 

WITH INCREASING WINDS AND DETERIORATING MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS 

FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR 

LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR UPDATES ON THIS STORM SYSTEM THROUGHOUT 

THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT:

 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 250037
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
840 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH WITH WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS
CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. INTERESTS ALONG SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.