70% Chance Of Memorial Day Weekend Tropical Storm

MIAMI, Florida -- NOAA's National Hurricane Center storm tracker in Miami, Florida has issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook at 4:25 a.m. EDT on May 25, 2012 due to a non-tropical low pressure system that has become better defined in the Atlantic off the coast of South Florida.

UPDATE: 2012 Memorial Day Weekend Sub-Tropical Storm Beryl


The low has developed thunderstorm activity.  NOAA says that there is some potential for additional development into a tropical or subtropical cyclone by Saturday during the 2012 Memorial Day Weekend as the system moves northeastward into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean before turning back towards the Florida coast.
 

The low will produce high seas off the Florida Atlantic coast which is bad news for boaters where Memorial Day weekend is traditionally a busy day for recreational boating and fishing.

 

The low is approximately 175 miles southeast of Port Canaveral, Florida.  Other busy cruise ports along South Florida such as the Port of Palm Beach, Port of Miami, and Port Everglades near Fort Lauderdale, Florida may also have local seas affected by this low pressure system.  Cruise passengers should check often with their particular cruise line for local weather updates affecting cruise itineraries.

The low could also produce dangerous rip currents for Memorial Day weekend beach goers along the Space Coast and east coast Florida beaches.

Surfers on the other hand, welcome the possibility of large ocean swell development.

As of 4:25 a.m. EDT this morning, the low has a high chance (70%) of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.  This is a substantial and rapid increase from the 20% chance given by NOAA yesterday morning, and 40% chance given by NOAA yesterday afternoon.


Elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 250822
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
425 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. WHILE THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THE LOW
SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS
WELL AS CENTRAL CUBA. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.