MIAMI, Florida -- NOAA's National Huricane Center in Miami, Florida has issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook due to a non-tropical low pressure system that has become better defined in the Atlantic off the coast of South Florida.
UPDATE: 2012 Memorial Day Weekend Sub-Tropical Storm Beryl
The low has developed thunderstorm activity. NOAA says that there is some potential for additional development into a tropical or subtropical cyclone late Saturday or early Sunday during the 2012 Memorial Day Weekend as the system moves northeastward into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
The low will produce high seas off the southeastern Florida Atlantic coast which is bad news for boaters where Memorial Day weekend is traditionally a busy day for recreational boating and fishing.
The low is approximately 200 miles south-southeast of Port Canaveral, Florida. Other busy cruise ports along South Florida such as the Port of Palm Beach, Port of Miami, and Port Everglades near Fort Lauderdale, Florida may also have local seas affected by this low pressure system. Cruise passengers should check often with their particular cruise line for local weather updates affecting cruise itineraries.
The low could also produce dangerous rip currents for Memorial Day weekend beach goers along the Space Coast and southeast Florida beaches.
Surfers on the other hand, welcome the possibility of large ocean swell development.
As of 12:55 p.m. today, the low has a medium chance (40%) of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. This is an increase from the 20% chance given by NOAA earlier this morning.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1255 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH AND WIND GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER. CURRENTLY...THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. && HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.