10% Chance Tropical Cyclone Forms Off Florida

 

 

 

 

MIAMI, Florida -- At 8 a.m. on August 3, 2012 Eastern Daylight Time, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a tropical weather outlook due to the development of two disturbances in addition to Tropical Storm Ernesto in the Caribbean.


UPDATE: 20% Chance Tropical Cyclone Hits Florida

 

The system closest to Florida, which formed over the Bahamas, is disorganized cloudiness and showers associated with a surface trough.  NOAA says that strong upper-level winds are likely to prevent any significant development for the next day or two.  This system has a low chance (10%) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves to the northwest at 5 to 10 miles an hour.

 

 

 

Tropical Storm Ernesto is located 40 miles west-southwest of St. Lucia moving west at 24 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour.  NOAA says the center of Ernesto will move away from the Windward Island and farther into the Eastern Caribbean Sea later this morning.

 

  

NOAA's storm tracker forecasts that the Tropical Storm Ernesto will continue on its west-northwestward track through Wednesday.  The storm is predicted to remain at tropical storm strength on Sunday before reaching the island nation of Jamaica.  The storm is expected to reach hurricane strength on Monday over Jamaica.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Dominica, St. Lucia, Martinique, and Guadaloupe.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible with the watch area generally within the 48 hours.

The third system is a well-defined low pressure area associated with a tropical wave.  It is located over the easter tropical Atlantic about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands.  NOAA says that environmental conditions are conducive for some gradual development of this disturbance during the next couple of days.  This system has a medium chance (30%) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 miles per hour.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected elsewhere in the Atlantic during the next 48 hours. 

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