60% Chance New Tropical Cyclone Forms In Atlantic

 

 

MIAMI, Florida -- At 2 a.m. on August 18, 2012 Eastern Daylight Time, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a tropical weather outlook due to the presence of Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene on the eastern Mexican coast, Hurricane Gordon in the east-central Atlantic, and strengthening of a tropical wave off the Coast of Africa.

UPDATE: 70% Chance New Tropical Cyclone Forms In Atlantic

NOAA Raises 2012 Hurricane Season Prediction

Hurricane Gordon remains at Category 2 strength 395 miles west-southwest of the Azores with maximum sustained winds of 110 miles per hour as it moves eastward at 22 miles per hour towards Portugal.  However, NOAA predicts some weakening later today. 


A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the eastern Azores.



Tropical Storm Helene has degenerated into a broad area of low pressure located about 300 miles south-southwest of Corpus Christie, Texas moving northwest at 3 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 30 miles per hour.

Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located 625 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization.  NOAA says that environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next day or two.  


NOAA says that environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical depression to form  (marked as number 1 above) during the next day or two as it moves toward the west at 20 miles per hour. This system has a high (60%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.  

Could Sahara Sand In Florida Mean Less 2012 Hurricanes?

 

TROPICAL STORM HELENE OFFICIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 190231
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012
1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...HELENE DEGENERATES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THIS IS
THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 99.1W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WNW OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.1 WEST.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
UNTIL DISSIPATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO
FROM NORTHERN VERACRUZ INTO SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS AND EASTERN SAN
LUIS STATES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE GORDON OFFICIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY:

000
WTNT33 KNHC 190547
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012
200 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2012

...CATEGORY TWO GORDON MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EASTERN AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.6N 32.7W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL AZORES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN AZORES

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.7 WEST. GORDON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GORDON WILL BE NEAR THE EASTERN AZORES EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GORDON IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...BUT GORDON IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES NEAR THE EASTERN
AZORES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
EASTERN AZORES LATE TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

RAINFALL...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES OVER THE AZORES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GORDON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZORES THIS AFTERNOON...CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN