90% Chance New Tropical Cyclone Forms In Atlantic
MIAMI, Florida -- As of 8:00 a.m. on Thursday August 30,
2012 Eastern Daylight Time, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami,
Florida, has several outstanding
advisories associated with its tropical weather outlook due to the presence of Tropical Storm Isaac over Louisiana and Mississippi, Tropical Storm Kirk in the central Atlantic, and the strengthening of a tropical wave off the coast of Africa.
8 AM August 30 UPDATE: NOAA: 100% Chance New Tropical Cyclone Forms In Atlantic
Tropical Storm Isaac is located 125 miles northwest of New Orleans, Louisiana with maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour, with higher gusts, as it moves northwest at 8 miles per hour .
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border (including Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain).
Southeast Louisiana and Mississippi: 5 to 10 feet.
Alabama: 2 to 4 feet.
South Central Louisiana: 1 to 3 feet.
Florida Panhandle: 1 to 2 feet
8 AM August 30 UPDATE: NOAA: 100% Chance New Tropical Cyclone Forms In Atlantic
Tropical Storm Isaac is located 125 miles northwest of New Orleans, Louisiana with maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour, with higher gusts, as it moves northwest at 8 miles per hour .
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border (including Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain).
Southeast Louisiana and Mississippi: 5 to 10 feet.
Alabama: 2 to 4 feet.
South Central Louisiana: 1 to 3 feet.
Florida Panhandle: 1 to 2 feet
Tropical Storm Kirk is located 1505 miles southwest of the Azores with maximum sustained winds of 65 miles per hour as it moves northwest at 10 miles per hour. NOAA predicts some strengthening of Tropical Storm Kirk during the next 48 hours and could become a hurricane.
Meanwhile, satellite images of a tropical wave located 1000 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands (marked as number 1 above) indicate that a new Tropical Depression could be forming over the central Atlantic Ocean NOAA says this system has a high (90%) chance of becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves toward the west-northwest at 15 to 20 miles per hour.
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TROPICAL STORM KIRK OFFICIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY:
000 WTNT31 KNHC 300840 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KIRK ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 500 AM AST THU AUG 30 2012 ...KIRK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 49.0W ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1505 MI...2425 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST. KIRK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KIRK COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BERG
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC OFFICIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY:
000 WTNT34 KNHC 301142 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 700 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012 ...ISAAC CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...SEVERE WEATHER...AND HIGH WATER LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 91.8W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER... INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER LOUISIANA TODAY...OVER ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY...AND OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OCCURRING OVER WATER OR NEAR THE COAST. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS ISAAC CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER LAND. ISAAC IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- EVEN THOUGH ISAAC IS NO LONGER A HURRICANE...LIFE-THREATENING HAZARDS FROM STORM SURGE...INLAND FLOODING...AND TORNADOES ARE STILL OCCURRING. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... * MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...5 TO 10 FT * ALABAMA...2 TO 4 FT * SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT * FLORIDA PANHANDLE...1 TO 2 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGES...AT NEW CANAL STATION LOUISIANA...A STORM SURGE OF NEAR 6 FEET IS STILL OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND A STORM SURGE VALUE OF NEAR 5 FEET IS OCCURRING AT WAVELAND MISSISSIPPI. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 14 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND ARKANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND FLOODING. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 23.31 INCHES HAS BEEN RECEIVED FROM GRETNA LOUISIANA. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TODAY. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE
