Sunday, August 5, 2012

Low Hits Florida, Ernesto and Florence Strengthen

 
 
 
 
JACKSONVILLE, Florida -- At 2 a.m. on August 5, 2012 Eastern Daylight Time, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a tropical weather outlook due to the development of Tropical Storm Florence in the Atlantic Ocean as well as a low pressure system over Florida while Tropical Storm Ernesto still churns in the Caribbean.


UPDATE: Sahara Winds Weaken Florence, Ernesto To Hit Mexico

 

The system closest to Florida (marked as #1 on the above map), which made landfall near Cape Canaveral, Florida, is a trough of low pressure which continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from northeastern Florida eastward for a couple hundred miles.  NOAA says that development of this system is not expected as it is anticipated to move farther inland across northern Florida over the next day or so.  This system has a low chance (near 0%) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula today.



  [Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

 
Tropical Storm Ernesto is located 290 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica moving west at 22 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour.  NOAA says the center of Ernesto will move farther into the central Caribbean Sea towards the Yucatan Peninsula.
 

NOAA's storm tracker forecasts that Tropical Storm Ernesto will continue on its west-northwestward track through Thursday.  The storm is predicted to remain at tropical storm strength on Sunday before reaching just south of the island nation of Jamaica.  The storm is expected to reach hurricane strength on Monday near Honduras.
[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]




















Tropical Storm Florence is located over the eastern tropical Atlantic about 600 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands moving west-northwest at 16 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour.  


NOAA's storm tracker forecasts that the Tropical Storm Florence will continue on its west-northwestward track through Thursday.  The storm is predicted to weaken to tropical depression strength on Thursday before reaching just north of the island nation of Puerto Rico.

Could Sahara Sand In Florida Mean Less 2012 Hurricanes?

 

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFICIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY:

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 265
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI...AND ON TROPICAL
STORM FLORENCE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 600
MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA EASTWARD FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN

 

 

ERNESTO OFFICIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY:

 

000
WTNT35 KNHC 050547
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 73.7W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST. ERNESTO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA OVERNIGHT...MOVE SOUTH OF
JAMAICA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
SLOW STRENGTHENING EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

 

FLORENCE OFFICIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY:

 

000
WTNT31 KNHC 050249
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

...FLORENCE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 33.0W
ABOUT 600 MI...960 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.0 WEST. FLORENCE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND FLORENCE SHOULD NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN