Saturday, August 25, 2012

NOAA: Tropical Storm Isaac To Strengthen, Hit Florida

TAMPA, Florida -- At 11 p.m. on August 25, 2012 Eastern Daylight Time, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a tropical weather outlook public advisory due to the Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity of Tropical Storm Isaac in the Caribbean and another tropical wave off the coast of Africa. 



5 P.M. E.D.T. UPDATE: NOAA: Hurricane Isaac Grows Stronger, Storm Surge Warning
 


NOAA expects Tropical Storm Isaac to grow stronger within the next 48 hours as it moves closer to Florida.



Florida Governor Declares State of Emergency



NOAA's National Hurricane Center
stormtracker forecasts that Tropical Storm Isaac, predicted to become Hurricane Isaac on Monday, will take a more easterly track and arrive just off the coast of Pensacola, Florida Tuesday night.


The northeast quadrant of Tropical Storm Issac, the most powerful area of a hurricane in the northern hemisphere, is predicted to be over Southwest Florida Sunday afternoon and Tampa Bay on Monday morning as Hurricane Isaac passes over the Florida Keys.  



The majority of the spaghetti models predict that Hurricane Isaac will head north-northwest on Monday and make landfall as a Category 2 Hurricane on the U.S. Gulf Coast anywhere from as far west as New Orleans, Louisiana to as far south and east as Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

 




Latest Tropical Storm Isaac and Hurricane Isaac 2012 Information:


Tropical Storm Isaac is located 65 miles northeast of Camuguey, Cuba with maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour, with higher gusts, as it moves northwest at 17 miles per hour
.


NOAA expects that Tropical Storm Isaac will move over central Cuba overnight and move over the Florida Keys on Monday morning.




A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys, the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach southward, and Florida Bay.




A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida East Coast from Golden Beach, Florida southward, and Andros Island in the Bahamas.



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti, the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, the Florida East Coast from Jupiter Inlet Southward, Lake Okeechobee,
the Florida West Coast from the Suwannee River to Tarpon Springs, Florida, and the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Camague, Las Tunas, Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo.


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida East Coast from Sebastian Inlet to Flagler Beach, the Florida Gulf Coast from Suwannee River to Indian Pass, and the Cuban provinces of Matanzas and Cienfuegos. 

 
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.


Hurricane Isaac May Hit Florida: Be Prepared



Also, another tropical wave (marked as number 1 above) is located near the Cape Verde Islands.  NOAA's National Hurricane Center says that some development of this wave is possible over the next couple of days as it moves to the west or northwest at about 15 miles per hour.  This system has a medium chance (30%) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

 

U.S. Gulf Coast Vulnerable To Erosion From Hurricane Isaac

NOAA Raises 2012 Hurricane Season Prediction 

Could Sahara Sand In Florida Mean Less 2012 Hurricanes? 

 

Tropical Storm Isaac National Weather Service Official Public Advisory:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 260243
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...ISAAC HEADING TOWARD THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 77.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA
BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO INDIAN
PASS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON
SPRINGS...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NORTH OF TARPON
SPRINGS TO INDIAN PASS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ISAAC.  A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE JUST
NORTH OF THE CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR
OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.  ISAAC IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN CUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN CUBA BY LATE SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA IN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE MONDAY IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...5 TO 7 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA INCLUDING
TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE