Monday, August 6, 2012

Sahara Winds Weaken Florence, Ernesto To Hit Mexico

 
 
 
 
JACKSONVILLE, Florida -- At 5 a.m. on August 6, 2012 Eastern Daylight Time, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a tropical weather outlook due to the development of Tropical Storm Florence in the Atlantic Ocean while Tropical Storm Ernesto still churns in the Caribbean.



[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

 

 
Tropical Storm Ernesto is located 180 miles east of the Honduran/Nicaraguan border moving west at 12 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour.  NOAA says the center of Ernesto will move farther into the central Caribbean Sea towards the Yucatan Peninsula.
 

NOAA's storm tracker forecasts that Tropical Storm Ernesto will continue on its west-northwestward track through Saturday.  The storm is predicted to remain at tropical storm strength on Friday before moving inland over Belize and south-central Mexico.  The storm is expected to drop to tropical depression strength on Saturday over Mexico.


[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]











Tropical Depression Florence is located over the eastern tropical Atlantic about 1610 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands moving west at 12 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour.  


NOAA's storm tracker forecasts that the Tropical Depression Florence will continue on its west-northwestward track through Friday.  The tropical depression is predicted to weaken more by Friday before reaching just north of the island nation of Puerto Rico.


NOAA says that satellite imagery continues to show a large mass of Saharan air wrapping around the tropical cyclone circulation.  The dry air, combined with the effects of some easterly shear and only marginally warm waters has made it difficult for Florence to maintain any significant convection.

Could Sahara Sand In Florida Mean Less 2012 Hurricanes?

 

ERNESTO OFFICIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY:

 

000
WTNT35 KNHC 060841
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS
TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO TULUM.

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO
TULUM

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE COAST OF
HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA AND
ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

 

FLORENCE OFFICIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY:

 

000
WTNT31 KNHC 060831
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012
500 AM AST MON AUG 06 2012

...FLORENCE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 38.8W
ABOUT 1610 MI...2590 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.8 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.  A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND FLORENCE IS EXPECTED
TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI