Sunday, September 16, 2012

NOAA: 20% Chance 2 New Tropical Cyclones Form


 
 
MIAMI, Florida -- As of 2:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday September 15, 2012, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued its tropical weather outlook due to the presence of Hurricane Nadine located in the central Atlantic plus an area of low pressure just east of the Caribbean, and another system off the coast of Brownsville, Texas.

September 16 UPDATE:  NOAA: 10% Chance New Tropical Cyclone Forms In Gulf of Mexico







Showers and thunderstorms have developed over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico in association with a weak surface low pressure system (marked as #1 above) located about 90 miles east of Brownsville, Texas.  


NOAA believes that some gradual development of this disturbance is possible over the next couple of days as it moves northeastward at 10 to 15 miles per hour.  This system has a low chance (20%) of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.


Regardless of development, this system could produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle on Monday and continuing into Tuesday.


Another area of low pressure located about 325 miles east of the Lesser Antilles (marked as #2 above) is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.  



Although upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development to occur, NOAA says that conditions could become more conducive for development in the next few days.  This system has a low chance (20%) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves westward at around 15 miles per hour into the southwest Caribbean.


Meanwhile, Hurricane Nadine is located 985 miles west-southwest of the Azores with maximum sustained winds of 80 miles per hour, with higher gusts, as it moves east at 23 miles per hour. 



There are no Tropical Storm Warnings or Watched in effect for Hurricane Nadine.  However, Hurricane Nadine is producing long-period swells that have elevated the rip current risk along the Florida Atlantic coast.

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HURRICANE NADINE OFFICIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 161442
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 16 2012

...HURRICANE NADINE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 41.7W
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  NADINE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART