NOAA: 40% Chance New Tropical Cyclone Forms In Atlantic

 

 

MIAMI, Florida -- As of 8:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday September 20, 2012, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued its tropical weather outlook due to the presence of Tropical Storm Nadine located in the east-central Atlantic plus an area of low pressure east of Bermuda.


Showers and gale force winds located over the central Atlantic about 700 miles east of Bermuda (marked as #1 above) are associated with a non-tropical low pressure system.  The circulation of the low is gradually becoming better defined and the associated shower activity is slowly increasing in organization.


NOAA believes that his low could begin to acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics as it moves west-northwestward at about 10 miles per hour during the next day or two. But environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable thereafter. This system has a medium chance (40%) of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
 


Spaghetti models are in agreement that this system would approach Maine and the northern New England coast, but then hook northward towards Nova Scotia without making landfall.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Nadine is located 160 miles south-southwest of Pico in the Azores with maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour, with higher gusts, as it moves east-southeast at 10 miles per hour.
  

GOES Tropical Atlantic Satellite Rainbow Imagery

Surfing Hurricane Leslie Swells: VIDEO

Could Sahara Sand In Florida Mean Less 2012 Hurricanes?

  

TROPICAL STORM NADINE OFFICIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 201139
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  36A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
800 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012

...NADINE CONTINUES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.4N 29.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF PICO IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...
GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA...SAO MIGUEL...AND SANTA MARIA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.8 WEST.  NADINE IS
NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT NADINE COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A DROPSONDE LAUNCHED BY THE
NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH