NOAA: 60% Chance New Tropical Cyclone Forms In Atlantic

 

 

MIAMI, Florida -- As of 2:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday September 20, 2012, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued its tropical weather outlook due to the presence of Tropical Storm Nadine located in the east Atlantic plus an area of low pressure east of Bermuda.


Showers and gale force winds located over the central Atlantic about 650 miles east of Bermuda (marked as #1 above) are associated with a non-tropical low pressure system.  The circulation of the low is gradually becoming better defined and the associated shower activity is becoming better organized.


NOAA believes that his low could begin to acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics as it moves west-northwestward at about 10 miles per hour during the next day or two. But environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable thereafter. 


This system has a high chance (60%) of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
 


Spaghetti models are in agreement that this system would approach Maine and the northern New England coast, but then hook northward towards Nova Scotia without making landfall.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Nadine is located 155 miles south-southwest of Pico in the Azores with maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour, with higher gusts, as it moves east-southeast at 10 miles per hour.
  

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TROPICAL STORM NADINE OFFICIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 201731
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
200 PM AST THU SEP 20 2012

...NADINE STILL PASSING SOUTH OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 28.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF PICO IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.6 WEST.  NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT NADINE COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  FLORES IN THE AZORES RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO 46 MPH...74 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH