Saturday, October 27, 2012

Hurricane Sandy Projected Path: NOAA 8 AM UPDATE

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/imagery/rb-animated.gif


MIAMI, Florida -- As of 8:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday, October 27, 2012, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, has issued its tropical weather outlook due to the presence of Hurricane Sandy in the Atlantic Ocean off the east coast of Florida.
 
Hurricane Sandy, briefly Tropical Storm Sandy earlier this morning, is located 335 miles southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, or about 225 miles east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 75 miles per hour - making Sandy a Category 1 Hurricane.  Hurricane Sandy is moving to the north-northeast at 10 miles per hour.
 

Hurricane Sandy's expanded wind field is affecting Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina weather this morning.  Hurricane-force winds extend up to 100 miles, and Tropical storm-force winds extend up to 450 miles, from the center of Hurricane Sandy.
 
 
 

Hurricane Sandy
is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today as it moves northeastward in the open Atlantic Ocean less than 300 miles off the Florida east coast this morning, and less than 250 miles off the North Carolina coast on Sunday night. 

 
Tropical Storm Sandy is expected to strengthen during the Hurricane Sandy hook on Monday, becoming a Category 1 Hurricane once again, before it makes landfall on or around Delaware on Tuesday, October 30, 2012.  
 

New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington D.C. are all within the current landfall forecast cone of uncertainty from North Carolina to Connecticut - which is causing some forecasters to use the term "Frankenstorm" for the northeastern U.S. Hurricane Sandy landfall just before Halloween on October 31, 2012.

 

  
STORM SURGE:
NOAA warns that a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet is possible for the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Bahamas, 1 to 3 feet within the Warning Area for the Florida coast, 3 to 5 feet within the Warning Area for North Carolina, and 2 to 4 feet for the remainder of North Carolina and Southeast Virginia, including Chesapeake Bay.  Warning areas are displayed in the above image.
 

 

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, tropical storm formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
 
 
NOAA's HURRICANE SANDY OFFICIAL  PUBLIC ADVISORY:
 
 
000
WTNT33 KNHC 271159
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 76.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO SAINT AUGUSTINE
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SAINT AUGUSTINE TO
FERNANDINA BEACH
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...GALE...STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DATA FROM NOAA AND U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT SANDY HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SANDY IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450 MILES...725 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  NOAA BUOY 41010...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220
KM...EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 58 MPH...94 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 74 MPH...119 KM/H. A
NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF
53 MPH...85 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRST REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS BY
THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

BAHAMAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
REMAINDER OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SE VIRGINIA INCLUDING LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED
PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/LANDSEA



      
 
 
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