Thursday, October 25, 2012

NOAA: Hurricane Sandy To Make Landfall Near New Jersey


 
MIAMI, Florida -- As of 11:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, October 25, 2012, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, has issued its tropical weather outlook due to the presence of Hurricane Sandy in the Caribbean Sea and Tropical Storm Tony in the central tropical Atlantic.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/imagery/rb-animated.gifE  
Hurricane Sandy is located about 300 miles southeast of Miami, Florida with maximum sustained winds of 105 miles per hour - making Sandy a Category 2 Hurricane.  Hurricane Sandy is moving to the north at 16 miles per hour.

 
 

NOAA's storm tracker forecasts that Hurricane Sandy will remain at hurricane strength as it approaches the Bahamas today.  Hurricane Sandy is forecast to weaken to a Category 1 hurricane after it crosses the Bahamas into the open Atlantic less than 200 miles off the South Florida coast on Friday, and less than 200 miles off the Central Florida coast on Saturday, and less than 200 miles off the North Carolina coast on Sunday.  


 
Later in the week, Hurricane Sandy is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm and make landfall on or around New Jersey on Tuesday.  New York City, Boston,  and Washington D.C. are all within the current landfall forecast cone of uncertainty.
 


 
NOAA warns that a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet is possible for the Hurricane Warning area in the Bahamas, and 1 to 2 feet within the Warning Area for the Florida coast. Warning areas are displayed in the above image.
 
 
 
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Tony is located in the central Atlantic and not expected to impact any land within the next 48 hours.
 
 

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, tropical storm formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
 
 
NOAA's HURRICANE SANDY OFFICIAL  PUBLIC ADVISORY:
 
 
000
WTNT33 KNHC 251445
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SANDY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 75.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SSW OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

THE TROPICAL WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN HAITI
TODAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON
FRIDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 964
MB...28.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER EASTERN CUBA
TODAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN CUBA AND JAMAICA LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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