Monday, June 3, 2013

20% Chance Tropical Cyclone Forms Off Florida, Projected Path Changes

 
 
MIAMI, Florida --  As of 8:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Monday June 3, 2013, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued its tropical weather outlook due to a trough of low pressure that is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms between the Yucatan Peninsula and the southwest Florida coast.




Tropical Storm Andrea Path: 8 AM June 7, 2013 UPDATE


 

NOAA says that development of this system is likely to be slow to occur due to environmental conditions.  This system has a low chance (20%) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it drifts northward into the Gulf of Mexico.


The system is already bringing rain to much of South Florida from Tampa to Miami.


The latest Spaghetti model forecasts are generally in agreement that the system would likely take a more northerly direction than previous forecasts, making landfall somewhere along Florida's west coast between the Gainesville, Florida area and Pensacola.


After landfall, the system's projected path would take it across the Florida panhandle through Georgia or Alabama.




If the system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, the first name for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season is Andrea.


Here is the list of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Names (and yes, there is a Wendy Hurricane name this year!):

Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dorian
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy 



NOAA is forecasting an active or extremely active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season this year due to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, lack of El NiƱo, and a continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995. 


Latest satellite imagery:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-animated.gif

 

Hurricanes Have Less Affect On U.S. Oil Production Than In Past

 

NOAA Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook:


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.  ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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