Thursday, July 11, 2013

30% Chance Tropical Storm Chantal 2013 Remnants Redevelop: Projected Path Update



MIAMI, Florida --  As of 8:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday July 11, 2013, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, has issued its tropical weather outlook due to the presence of a low pressure trough, the remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal 2013, that is producing near tropical storm force winds and disorganized thunderstorms in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.


NOAA forecasts that environmental conditions for redevelopment of Chantal's remnants back into a tropical cyclone will become a little bit more favorable in a day or so.  This system has a medium chance (30%) of becoming a tropical cyclone again during the next 48 hours as it moves generally to the northwest.


Regardless of development, heavy rains and winds near tropical storm force are expected to continue over central Cuba and the Bahamas over the next day.




Spaghetti models are in general agreement that the system's projected path will move across the southern Bahamas in the next 24 hours, but then disagree as to whether track will head west towards Miami, Florida or move northward along the Florida east coast or remain in the open Atlantic.



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
ON FRIDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN