Sunday, July 28, 2013

30% Chance Tropical Storm Dorian Regenerates: Projected Path Update


August 3 UPDATE: Tropical Storm Dorian Forms Off Florida

MIAMI, Florida --  As of 2:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, July 28, 2013, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has issued its tropical outlook due to the presence of the remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian, the fourth named storm of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.


The area of cloudiness associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian (marked as #1) is located a few hundred miles north and northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands and is forecast to move to the west-northwest at 15 to 20 miles per hour over the next 48 hours.   The remnants are expected to reach the southern Bahamas on Tuesday.



NOAA says that this system has a medium chance (30%) of becoming a tropical cyclone again within the next 48 hours.  A U.S. Air Force Reseve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating this system to determine if a closed low-level circulation and well-defined center have redeveloped.



Spaghetti models  are in general agreement that INVEST 91 will continue on a west to northwesterly track over the next 48 hours.  However, the models begin to disagree as to where INVEST 91 will go after reaching the Bahamas.  Some models take the system towards the Florida Keys while others keep the system parallel with the east coast of Florida.
 


Remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian Latest Satellite Imagery:

Could Sahara Sand In Florida Mean Less Hurricanes?


NOAA is forecasting an active or extremely active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season this year due to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, lack of El Niño, and a continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995.




NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK: 
 
 
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS
WINDS TO GALE FORCE...A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER HAVE REDEVELOPED. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION...BUT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD LEAD
TO THE REFORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH...PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY
AND MONDAY...AND MOVING OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER BERG