Sunday, July 28, 2013

NOAA: 10% Chance Remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian Become Tropical Cyclone





MIAMI, Florida --  As of 2:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday July 28, 2013, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has issued its tropical outlook due to the presence of the remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian, the fourth named storm of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season, plus a a tropical low pressure system off Massachusetts.


The area of cloudiness associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian (marked as #1) is located approximately 350 miles northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands and is moving to the west at 20 miles per hour.   The remnants are expected to pass Puerto Rico by Wednesday.


NOAA says that although this system has a low chance (10%) of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours, a U.S. Air Force Reseve Hurricane Hunter aircraft stands ready to investigate this disturbance later today.


Meanwhile, a non-tropical area of low pressure (marked as #2) is located about 225 miles south-southeast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts and is racing to the northeast.  NOAA says that this system has a low chance, near 0%, of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
 


Remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian Latest Satellite Imagery:

Could Sahara Sand In Florida Mean Less Hurricanes?


NOAA is forecasting an active or extremely active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season this year due to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, lack of El Niño, and a continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995.




NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK: 
 
 
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN ARE
CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR REGENERATION...AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS READY TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE COD IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED
TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER AVILA