Sunday, July 28, 2013

NOAA: 50% Chance Tropical Storm Dorian Redevelops, Projected Path Update




MIAMI, Florida --  As of 8:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, July 28, 2013, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has issued its tropical outlook due to the presence of the remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian, the fourth named storm of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

The area of cloudiness associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian (marked as #1) is located a few hundred miles north-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands and is forecast to move to the west-northwest at 15 to 20 miles per hour over the next 48 hours.   The remnants are expected to reach the southeastern Bahamas on Tuesday.


NOAA says that this system has a medium chance (50%) of becoming a tropical cyclone again within the next 48 hours.  A U.S. Air Force Reseve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reconnaissance flight today was unable to find evidence that a closed low-level circulation and well-defined center had redeveloped.

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that INVEST 91 will continue on a west to northwesterly track over the next 48 hours.  However, the models begin to disagree as to where INVEST 91 will go after reaching the southeastern Bahamas.  Most models take the system towards between northern Cuba and the Florida Keys while some take the system over the Bahamas towards south Florida.
 
Remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian Latest Satellite Imagery:

Could Sahara Sand In Florida Mean Less Hurricanes?

NOAA is forecasting an active or extremely active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season this year due to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, lack of El Niño, and a continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995.


NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK: 
 
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...
IS PRODUCING A SMALL BUT CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS GALE-FORCE WINDS...A FEW HUNDRED MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS OF A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO THE REFORMATION OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND MOVE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART