Sunday, July 28, 2013

NOAA Update: 20% Chance Tropical Storm Dorian Regenerates






MIAMI, Florida --  As of 8:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, July 28, 2013, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has issued its tropical outlook due to the presence of the remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian, the fourth named storm of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season, plus a a tropical low pressure system off Massachusetts.


The area of cloudiness associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian (marked as #1) is located a few hundred miles northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands and is moving to the west at 15 to 20 miles per hour.   The remnants are expected to pass Puerto Rico by Monday and reach the Bahamas on Tuesday.



NOAA says that although this system has a low chance (20%) of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours, a U.S. Air Force Reseve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate this disturbance later today.


Meanwhile, a non-tropical area of low pressure (marked as #2) is located about 100 miles off of the New England coast and is moving to the northeast at 15 miles per hour.  NOAA says that this system has a low chance, near 0%, of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
 


Remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian Latest Satellite Imagery:

Could Sahara Sand In Florida Mean Less Hurricanes?


NOAA is forecasting an active or extremely active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season this year due to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, lack of El Niño, and a continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995.




NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK: 
 
 
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS A
FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TODAY AND MONDAY...AND MOVING OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY TUESDAY.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY.

2. A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER COLD
WATER.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER BERG