Friday, August 2, 2013

NOAA: 30% Chance Tropical Storm Dorian Regenerates By Florida, Projected Path Update

August 3 UPDATE: Tropical Storm Dorian Forms Off Florida

MIAMI, Florida --  As of 8:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, August 2, 2013, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has issued its tropical outlook due to the presence of the remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian, the fourth named storm of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.


The trough of low pressure associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian (marked as #1) is located between the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida east coast.  The system is forecast to drift to the north-northeast today.



NOAA predicts that this system has a medium chance (30%) of becoming a tropical cyclone again within the next 48 hours. 



Spaghetti models  are in general agreement that INVEST 91 will continue on a northern track over the next 24 hours.  However, the models begin to disagree as to where INVEST 91 will go once it nears the coast of Cape Canaveral, Florida.  Some models take the system parallel with the east coast of Florida while most take the storm further out to sea.
 


Remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian Latest Satellite Imagery:

Could Sahara Sand In Florida Mean Less Hurricanes?


NOAA is forecasting an active or extremely active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season this year due to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, lack of El Niño, and a continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995.




NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK: 
 
 
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN IS
LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA TODAY. AFTER THAT...THE DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND BECOME ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.