Sunday, August 18, 2013

NOAA: Tropical Depression Erin On More Westerly Projected Path

Latest NOAA Satellite Imagery Tropical Depression Erin (Click to enlarge)
MIAMI, Florida --  As of 5 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, August 18, 2013, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami issued a Public Advisory due the presence of former Tropical Storm Erin, now Tropical Depression Erin, in the central Atlantic Ocean.


Tropical Depression Erin is located about 1000 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands with maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour as she moves to the west at 9 miles per hour.  NOAA's stormtracker forecasts that Tropical Depression Erin will weaken into a remnant low over the next couple days as she moves on a more westerly path than previously forecast.


Spaghetti models have diverged in the last 12 hours as to which forecast track Tropical Depression Erin will take.  Some computer models keep Erin in the central Atlantic, while most take her on a more west-northwesterly track towards the Caribbean.



NOAA issued its updated Atlantic hurricane season outlook on August 8, 2013 saying the season is shaping up to be above normal with the possibility that it could be very active. The season has already produced four named storms, with the peak of the season – mid-August through October – yet to come.


The conditions in place now are similar to those that have produced many active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and include above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a stronger rainy season in West Africa, which produces wind patterns that help turn storm systems there into tropical storms and hurricanes.

The updated outlook calls for a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season. Across the Atlantic Basin for the entire season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook (which includes the activity to date of tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian) projects a 70 percent chance for each of the following ranges:


  • 13 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including
    • 6 to 9 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which
    • 3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
These ranges are above the 30-year seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

NOAA NHC Tropical Public Advisory:


000
WTNT35 KNHC 180831
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013
500 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013

...ERIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 38.4W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERIN IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR
SO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI