Thursday, September 12, 2013

Hurricane Humberto Projected Path Update

 

MIAMI, Florida --  NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami issued two Public Advisories due to the presence of Hurricane Humberto in the eastern Atlantic Ocean and Tropical Storm Gabrielle in the western Atlantic.




As of 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on September 12, 2013, Hurricane Humberto, the first named Hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season, is located 515 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, moving to the north at 15 mph, with maximum sustained winds at 85 mph. 


The projected path of Hurricane Humberto on the NOAA storm tracker is north towards the open Atlantic Ocean before it makes a sharp turn to the west-northwest on Friday morning.
As of 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time, Tropical Storm Gabrielle is located 200 miles northwest of Bermuda, moving to the north at 8 mph, with maximum sustained winds at 40 mph.
The projected path of Tropical Storm Gabrielle on the NOAA storm tracker is parallel to the U.S. east coast until she reaches Nova Scotia on Friday.
 

The middle of September is the historical peak of hurricane season. 



NOAA issued its updated Atlantic hurricane season outlook on August 8, 2013, saying the season is shaping up to be above normal with the possibility that it could be very active. The season has already produced four named storms, with the peak of the season – mid-August through October – yet to come.



The conditions in place now are similar to those that have produced many active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and include above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a stronger rainy season in West Africa, which produces wind patterns that help turn storm systems there into tropical storms and hurricanes.


The updated outlook calls for a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season. Across the Atlantic Basin for the entire season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook (which includes the activity to date of tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian) projects a 70 percent chance for each of the following ranges:


  • 13 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including
    • 6 to 9 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which
    • 3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

These ranges are above the 30-year seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.




NOAA NHC Tropical Storm Gabrielle Public Advisory:


000
WTNT32 KNHC 121431
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013
1100 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013

...GABRIELLE REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 67.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM NW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST.
GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL. 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
NOAA NHC Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory:

 
000
WTNT34 KNHC 121439
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
1100 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013

...HUMBERTO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 29.0W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.0 WEST.  HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TODAY...WITH A FASTER
RATE OF WEAKENING LIKELY BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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