Friday, September 13, 2013

Tropical Depression Gabrielle, Hurricane Humberto Projected Path Update

MIAMI, Florida --  NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami issued two Public Advisories due to the presence of Hurricane Humberto in the eastern Atlantic Ocean and Tropical Depression Gabrielle in the western Atlantic.



As of 5 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on September 13, 2013, Hurricane Humberto, the first named Hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season, is located 705 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, moving to the north-northwest at 12 mph, with maximum sustained winds at 75 mph.



The projected path of Hurricane Humberto on the NOAA storm tracker is northwest towards the open Atlantic Ocean before it makes a sharp turn to the north on Tuesday morning.
As of 5 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time, Tropical Depression Gabrielle is located 360 miles south-southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, moving to the north-northeast at 17 mph, with maximum sustained winds at 35 mph.
The projected path of Tropical Depression Gabrielle on the NOAA storm tracker is parallel to the U.S. east coast until she reaches Nova Scotia on Friday.
 

The middle of September is the historical peak of hurricane season. 



NOAA issued its updated Atlantic hurricane season outlook on August 8, 2013, saying the season is shaping up to be above normal with the possibility that it could be very active. The season has already produced four named storms, with the peak of the season – mid-August through October – yet to come.



The conditions in place now are similar to those that have produced many active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and include above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a stronger rainy season in West Africa, which produces wind patterns that help turn storm systems there into tropical storms and hurricanes.


The updated outlook calls for a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season. Across the Atlantic Basin for the entire season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook (which includes the activity to date of tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian) projects a 70 percent chance for each of the following ranges:


  • 13 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including
    • 6 to 9 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which
    • 3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

These ranges are above the 30-year seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.




NOAA NHC Tropical Depression Gabrielle Public Advisory:


000
WTNT32 KNHC 130850
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013
500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

...GABRIELLE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 67.5W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17
MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS HEADING WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
NOAA NHC Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory:

 
000
WTNT34 KNHC 130848
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

...HUMBERTO LOSING STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 30.2W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.2 WEST. HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME RATE OF FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND HUMBERTO WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI