Saturday, October 5, 2013

Tropical Storm Karen Projected Path Update

T.S. Karen Latest Satellite Imagery
MIAMI, Florida --  As of 8:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday, October 5, 2013, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami issued a Public Advisory due to the presence of Tropical Storm Karen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. 




Tropical Storm Karen is located about 185 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving to the north at 10 mph. 

T.S. Karen has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, with higher gusts.  Tropical storm force winds extend 115 miles from the center of the storm, mainly to the north and east of the center.  Satellite imagery shows that the outer bands of Tropical Storm Karen are already reaching Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River. 


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from west of Grand Isle to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, metro New Orleans, Lake Maurepas, Lake Pontchartrain, and the Pear River east to Indian Pass, Florida.


 
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


NOAA also warns of a Tropical Storm Karen storm surge threat to the northern U.S. Gulf Coast:


Terrebone Bay to west of Apalachee Bay: 1 to 3 feet.
Apalachee Bay including Cedar Key, Florida: 2 to 4 feet.
Apalachee Bay to Tampa Bay, Florida: 1 to 2 feet.


 
The NOAA NHC storm tracker forecasts that Tropical Storm Karen will make landfall possibly on the Louisiana coast within the cone of uncertainty today, followed by a second landfall on the Mississippi, Alabama, or Florida coasts on Sunday.


Spaghetti models still differ on whether T.S. Karen will make landfall in Louisiana or take a sharper, easterly turn towards the Florida panhandle.


Mid-August through October  is the historical peak of hurricane season. 

NOAA Public Advisory:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 051140
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013
700 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

...KAREN MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 91.5W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. 

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/H. A DECREASE IN
FORAWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR
THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

TERREBONNE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED
FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL
CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN