Friday, October 17, 2014

Hurricane Gonzalo Projected Path Update

NOAA GOES satellite image of Hurricane Gonzalo
MIAMI, Florida --  As of 5 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, October 17, 2014, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has issued a Public Advisory due to the presence of Hurricane Gonzalo over the western Atlantic Ocean.


Gonzalo is located about 240 miles south-southwest of Bermuda and is moving north-northeast at 15 miles per hour.  NOAA's National Hurricane Center's storm tracker map forecasts that Gonzalo will continue on a north-northeast path with an increase in speed through Saturday.   The Gonzalo's hurricane eye is expected to be near Bermuda by this afternoon or tonight.  A hurricane warning is in effect for Bermuda.




Hurricane Gonzalo is a major Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 130 miles per hour with higher gusts.  Gonzalo is the strongest hurricane to form in the Atlantic since 2011.  Tropical storm-force winds extend 175 miles from the center of Gonzalo.





Spaghetti model forecasts are generally in agreement that Hurricane Gonzalo will remain well off of the U.S. east coast.  However, large swells generated by Gonzalo have begun to impact the U.S. southeast coast and will impact the rest of the U.S. east coast later today through Sunday which will create life-threatening conditions for both mariners and beach goers.

NOAA Wave Model Forecast for Friday, October 17, 2014



NOAA National Hurricane Center Official Public Advisory: 



000
WTNT33 KNHC 170831
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING...
...GONZALO LIKELY TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 66.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
GONZALO WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 MPH...215 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR
BERMUDA. FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATER THIS
MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE
WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER
THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN
GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN