Wednesday, October 22, 2014

NOAA: Tropical Depression 9 forms in Gulf of Mexico


MIAMI, Florida -- NOAA's National Hurricane Center storm tracker in Miami, Florida has issued a Public Advisory at 5 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, October 22, 2014, due to the presence of Tropical Depression 9 in the Gulf of Mexico that could become Tropical Storm Hanna later today.


Tropical Depression 9 has maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour and is moving to the east at 6 miles per hour. 


NOAA's stormtracker map forecasts that T.D. 9 will develop into Tropical Storm Hanna later today and that the tropical cyclone will make landfall on the Bay of Campeche, Mexico late tonight or early Thursday morning.  Tropical Storm Hanna is then expected to weaken back into a tropical depression as it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and Friday. 


Tropical Depression 9 is forecast to enter the Caribbean Sea on Saturday and remain just south of Cuba on Sunday and Monday.  
 


While it is still too early to forecast with statistical certainty, some spaghetti models forecast that Tropical Depression 9 will move over or near South Florida and/or east Central Florida later next week.


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Celestun to Frontera, Mexico.



NOAA National Hurricane Center Official Public Advisory:


000
WTNT34 KNHC 220832
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
400 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...DEPRESSION HEADED FOR THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 92.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO FRONTERA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST.  THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.   THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH