Tuesday, September 1, 2015

National Hurricane Center: Tropical Storm Fred Projected Path Update


MIAMI, Florida -- The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has issued a public advisory due to the presence of Tropical Storm Fred, the former second hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

As of 5 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, September 1, 2015, Tropical Storm Fred is located 195 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands and is moving to the west-northwest at 12 miles per hour.  Fred's maximum sustained winds have decreased to 65 mph (100 km/h), with higher gusts.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from Fred's center.

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST TRACK

Fred is expected to move in a west-northwest or northwest direction away from the Cape Verde Islands over the next couple of days. Fred is

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Sao Vicente, Sao Nicolau, Santo Antao, and Santa Luzia in the Cape Verde Islands.


SPAGHETTI MODELS

Spaghetti models are in agreement that Fred will remain in the mid-Atlantic over the next few days but disagree as to which direction Fred will take beyond 72 hours. There are significant differences in the model solutions with the HWRF, GFS, and GFDL models keeping Fred stronger and making the northward turn sooner, whereas the weaker solution models like the UKMET and ECMWF take a weaker and more vertically shallow cyclone farther west before turning it northward. The official forecast track is a little south of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more southerly initial position, and follows a blend of the weaker UKMET and ECMWF solutions.