Tuesday, September 6, 2016

NOAA: Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine's "Cone of Uncertainty" Nearly Circular

MIAMI, Florida - NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued a Public Advisory at 11 p.m. EDT on Monday, September 5, 2016, for Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine with a "cone of uncertainty" that is nearly circular - underscoring that Hermine will meander in an almost stationary position off the coasts of New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut during the next 48 hours as a tropical storm with life-threatening surf.

Storm Surge

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

The water could reach the 1 to 2 feet above ground along the coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.

Projected Path

Hermine is located about 120 miles southeast of the eastern tip of Long Island, New York, and is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph.

NHC forecasters believe that Hermine will remain nearly stationary on Tuesday before turning to the northeast on Wednesday.


A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from: Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor, New Haven to Sagamore Beach; Block Island; Martha's Vineyard; and Nantucket.

Monitor your local National Weather Service for storm watches and warnings specific to your area.


Maximum sustained winds are 65 mph (100 km/h), with higher gusts. Hermine is expected to weaken beginning tonight. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).