Saturday, October 8, 2016

NOAA: Hurricane Matthew Projected Path Update

Hurricane Matthew Projected Path

UPDATE: Hurricane Matthew has dissipated. No further public advisories will be issued from the National Hurricane Center.

U.S. Watches / Warnings
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Surf City, North Carolina.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Surf City, North Carolina to Cape Lookout, North Carolina.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Surf City, North Carolina to Duck, North Carolina; and Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

Hurricane Matthew Projected Path

This deadly hurricane is located about 20 miles southeast of Hilton Head Island, South Carolina and is moving to the north-northeast at 12 miles per hour.
NHC forecasters believe that Matthew will continue on a north-northeastward projected path through Saturday morning, followed by a turn to the northeast during Saturday afternoon.
Matthew is projected to move very near, or make landfall upon, South Carolina coast on Saturday morning as a Category 2 Hurricane before nearing the North Carolina coast Saturday night.

Hurricane Matthew Computer Models

Hurricane Matthew Computer Models
Spaghetti models continue to suggest the possibility of the hurricane making landfall on the coast of South Carolina. The official NHC forecast track closely follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF computer models.

Hurricane Matthew Strength
Matthew is a Category 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h). But  a decrease in strength is anticipated over the next two days. Matthew will remain a hurricane through at least Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

NHC projects that Matthew will remain at the following wind speed through this week:

105 MPH    Saturday (Category 2)
  80 MPH    Sunday (Category 1)
  70 MPH    Monday (Category 1)

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

Altamaha Sound, GA, to Edisto Beach, SC...6 to 9 ft

Edisto Beach, SC to Cape Fear, NC...5 to 7 ft

Cape Fear to Duck, NC, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft