Saturday, October 1, 2016

National Hurricane Center: 155 MPH Hurricane Matthew Projected Path Update

MIAMI, Florida - NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has issued a Public Advisory at 5 a.m. EDT on Saturday, October 1, 2016, due to the presence of Hurricane Matthew over the Caribbean Sea.

Hurricane Matthew Projected Path

This major and deadly hurricane is located about 400 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and is moving to the west at 7 miles per hour.

NHC forecasters believe that Matthew will make a turn to the west-northwest by tonight, followed by a turn to the north-northwest on Sunday.

Jamaica is in the direct path of Hurricane Matthew's storm track late Sunday, followed by eastern Cuba on Tuesday. Matthew is then projected to pass over The Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday.

However, the National Hurricane Center's "cone of uncertainty" does extend to the coast of South Florida. It is important to note that average NHC track forecast errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5. Therefore, it is too soon to rule out potentially serious hurricane impacts from Matthew to Florida.

Hurricane Matthew Strength

Matthew is a Category 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph (250 km/h).

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

NHC projects that Matthew will remain at the following wind speed through this week:

140 MPH    Sunday (Category 4)
125 MPH    Monday (Category 3)
125 MPH    Tuesday (Category 3)
125 MPH    Wednesday (Category 3)
105 MPH    Thursday (Category 2)
110 MPH    Friday (Category 2)

Hurricane Matthew Computer Models

Computer models are in general agreement that Hurricane Matthew will continue on a northwesterly projected path through Sunday before making a northerly turn. After Sunday, spaghetti models agree that Matthew will travel parallel to the east coast of Florida through Friday.