Friday, August 18, 2017

National Hurricane Center: Tropical Storm Harvey Projected Path Update

National Hurricane Center: Tropical Storm Harvey Projected Path

MIAMI, Florida - NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued a Public Advisory at 11 a.m. on Friday, August 18, 2017, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Harvey.

Tropical Storm Harvey is located 50 miles south-southwest of St. Lucia and is moving to the west at 21 mph (33 km/h).

This continued motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.

On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea today and move into the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday.

Harvey has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h), with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Harvey NOAA GOES Satellite Image

NOAA GOES Satellite Image Tropical Storm Harvey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area at this time. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area today.

Tropical Storm Harvey is is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts across parts of the Leeward and Windward Islands from Guadeloupe southward to Grenada.

These additional rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Dominica.

Tropical Storm Harvey Spaghetti Models

Tropical Storm Harvey Spaghetti Models

Most intensity computer models agree with the NHC model that Tropical Storm Harvey will remain at tropical storm strength before making landfall somewhere between Nicaragua and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

The ECMWF keeps the cyclone a little north of Nicaragua and Honduras and allows more room for development, while the GFS forecasts landfall in northeastern Nicaragua and thus has a weaker intensity.

The new NHC forecast is close to the previous one in showing a peak intensity below hurricane strength, but the confidence in this portion of the forecast is low.

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Tropical Storm Harvey's projected path will move in a westerly direction before turning slightly west-northwestward towards Belize.

However, it is too early for the computer models to make an accurate forecast as to precisely where Tropical Storm Harvey will make landfall along the coast of Central America.

Image credits: NOAA/NHC/SFWMD