NOAA Predicts Active or Extremely Active 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season
COCOA BEACH, Florida -- NOAA is forecasting an active or extremely active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season this year due to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, lack of El Niño, and a continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which
includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the
ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995.
For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s
Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood
of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11
could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6
major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
“This year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the
Atlantic basin are expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes,”
said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s
Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions include weaker wind shear,
warmer Atlantic waters and conducive winds patterns coming from
Africa."
NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook is not a hurricane landfall forecast; it does not predict how many storms will hit land or where a storm will strike.
Image: NASA satellite image of Hurricane Sandy.
