NOAA: 50% Chance Tropical Storm Dorian Redevelops, Projected Path Update
The area of cloudiness associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian (marked as #1) is located a few hundred miles north-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands and is forecast to move to the west-northwest at 15 to 20 miles per hour over the next 48 hours. The remnants are expected to reach the southeastern Bahamas on Tuesday.
NOAA says that this system has a medium chance (50%) of becoming a tropical cyclone again within the next 48 hours. A U.S. Air Force Reseve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reconnaissance flight today was unable to find evidence that a closed low-level circulation and well-defined center had redeveloped.
Remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian Latest Satellite Imagery:
NOAA is forecasting an active or extremely active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season this year due to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, lack of El Niño, and a continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN... IS PRODUCING A SMALL BUT CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS GALE-FORCE WINDS...A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS OF A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO THE REFORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND MOVE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART